Evaluating Criticisms of Pete Carroll, Seattle’s Seemingly Endless Coordinator Overturn, and the “Let Russ Cook” Movement
By Rohan Sanghani
Pete Carroll’s job appears to be safe…for now.
Following his 12th season as head coach of the Seattle Seahawks – and first with a losing record since 2011 – many anticipated Carroll to be relieved of his duties. The annual meeting among Seahawks owner Jody Allen, General Manager John Schneider, and Carroll triggered all sorts of discourse across the Pacific Northwest. However, these speculations appear to have been put to rest.
We now know that Carroll will be returning for his 13th season, largely to the dismay of much of the fanbase.
Carroll’s tenure, particularly the past 5 years, has polarized Seahawks faithful. There are those who claim that Pete is too “stuck in his ways”, clinging onto archaic coaching philosophies and drafting methods that simply don’t work in the modern NFL. Then there are those who view him as more than willing to change his ways and as one who seems to coach to the drum of his personnel. They cite Seattle’s endless schematic adaptations and heavy incorporation of analytics into day-to-day operations.
So, speaking of analytics, what does the data reveal about Pete’s coaching tendencies?
In order to gain a complete understanding, we’re going to need the full context of what has transpired over the past few seasons.
EPA (Expected Points Added) will be predominantly used to evaluate offensive play. This metric has generally become regarded as a much more accurate reflection of team and player performance than yards gained. An example would be a third-and-seven vs. third-and-two situation. A three yard gain would obviously be far more valuable on the third-and-two than on the third-and-seven. Whereas yards gained would view both situations equally, EPA would give more weightage to the gain on third-and-two.
What Led to “Let Russ Cook”?
What on earth does this mean and why was it a thing following the 2019 season and all throughout the 2020 offseason? What exactly is it that Seahawks fans were clamoring for, and did they get it?
“Let Russ Cook” is exactly what the name implies. Giving Russell Wilson more control. Whether it be throwing the ball more, giving Russ more autonomy at the line of scrimmage, letting Russ stretch the field more, or even letting him have more of a say in personnel decisions and coaching hires, the message was clear. Give the franchise quarterback more control, because that’s when good things happen.
It is a movement that both the analytics nerds and film gurus were able to come together on. The belief was that the over-reliance on a run-heavy game plan was hindering Russ from reaching his full potential – which Seattle could not afford to miss out on. Statistically speaking, the Seahawks were far more efficient on a per-down basis when Russ was throwing than they were when running the ball.
The noise was loud enough that it eventually reached the front office. So how did Pete Carroll and (at the time) offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer respond? Well, they listened.
One way to define how exactly they did this is by observing Seattle’s early down neutral situation pass rate, specifically distilled down to scenarios where Seattle’s win probability lies between 20% and 80%. Doing so would provide a more accurate reflection of Seattle’s pass tendencies as obvious pass or run situations (when the team is winning or losing by a significant margin) are thrown out. This is generally regarded as a good way of measuring how pass-oriented a team is.
The results shown here align strongly with what has transpired in Seattle over the past decade. Russell Wilson was drafted as a complimentary piece to an already-dominant Legion of Boom and Beast Mode-led run game. As can be seen, the Seahawks treated him as such, boasting some of the lowest early-down pass rates in the league throughout their Super Bowl years. The eventual departures of Marshawn Lynch, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Cliff Avril, and Michal Bennett led Seattle to rely more on their franchise signal-caller to do the heavy-lifting.
Seattle’s early down pass rate steadily rose accordingly from 2015 – 2017. However, playoff success evaded the franchise throughout these years, culminating in a failure to even reach the postseason in 2017. Carroll decided it was time for his offense to return to its run-centric roots. Seattle parted ways with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and handed the keys of the offense to Brian Schottenheimer (also known as Skybox Schotty).
It was no mistake that Seattle’s low early down pass rate in 2018 coincided with their league-high 160 yards/game rushing (7th highest EPA/play rushing on 1st and 2nd downs). Schottenheimer managed to deliver such high rushing efficiency while simultaneously posting some of the highest shotgun rates Seattle has ever seen as shown below.
Following a 2018 early round playoff exit, Schottenheimer increased his shotgun percentage even more in 2019. Except this time, Seattle’s early down pass rate climbed to the central cluster. This was catalyzed both by Russell Wilson simply playing out of his mind and by the addition of DK Metcalf. However, following another disappointing playoff exit, Let Russ Cook started to generate buzz.
There are those who still felt as though leaning on the run game was holding back the offense from reaching its ceiling. Russ had demonstrated time and time again his ability to elevate the entire roster when he was in control. Both the film pundits and analytics experts wanted to see if he could handle a similar level of volume as say, Patrick Mahomes, was seeing.
Pete Carroll obliged. Let’s take a look at the results.
For reference, this graph once again observes passing EPA/play on first and second down situations in which win probability is between 20% and 80%. There appears to be a downwards trend beginning around midseason. From Weeks 1-8 of the 2020 NFL season, Seattle boasted the league’s third best EPA/play on such passing plays. This ranking plummeted to 24th throughout Weeks 9-17.
Following a complete implosion in the Week 9 blowout loss against Buffalo, Pete Carroll, to an extent, put the kibosh on Let Russ Cook. He believed that Schottenheimer had reached the full extent of success he could achieve with pass rates as high as they were.
Much of the data substantiating the movement was predicated on the idea that how efficient teams are at moving the chains on first and second down is heavily correlated with overall offensive success. This means that avoiding losing yards on first down is critical.
Despite the fact that Seattle posted the 7th highest rushing EPA/play in 2018, they were still facing far more 2nd and longs (one of the statistically worst times to run) while also heavily leaning on the run in these situations to negate the lost yardage. In 2020, by comparison, the Seahawks faced much more manageable 2nd downs and were thus converting at a higher rate.
So, What Lessons Were Learned From “Let Russ Cook”?
Was it a complete failure? No. This approach to offense had Seattle sitting at 5-0 with Russell Wilson the front runner to win MVP. Things were going quite well for a while.
However, it’s become clear that Russell Wilson is probably not the quarterback we saw throughout the first half of 2020. He’s not Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Aaron Rodgers. This doesn’t mean that he’s not elite or that he’s not more than capable of leading his team to another Super Bowl. It just means that, statistically speaking, the argument that every down Seattle runs the ball is a wasted down may not be an accurate reflection of what is actually happening.
It remains to be seen how heavily Pete Carroll and Shane Waldron will lean on the pass game this upcoming year. 2021 was a lost season for Seattle with Russ getting injured and then struggling upon return. The offense was finally given a spark by, of all things, the run game throughout the final 4 games.
Ultimately, “Let Russ cook” may be a relic of the past. However, it would be disingenuous to insinuate that Pete Carroll and his coaching staff didn’t give it a fair shot. When it comes to the fanbase, nobody understands the power of the 12s quite like Pete.