By Sam Linker, Jarod Bacon, Jack Friedman, Henry Greenstein
Introducing our official power rankings for the 2018 MLB season. Our group of analysts placed the teams into four tiers: Postseason, Upper-Middle, Lower-Middle, and Basement-Dwellers. Then, they were ranked among other teams in their specific tier. Postseason consist of teams 1-10, Upper-Middle is 11-14, Lower-Middle is 15-20, and Basement-Dwellers are 21-30. Once the teams were ranked in their tiers, we combined the 4 to make one definitive 1-30 ranking based on analytics and our own opinions. All stats are from fangraphs.com unless otherwise indicated.
1. Astros
Could it be anyone else? Our 2018 MLB rankings start with none other than the World Series Champion Astros, who will look to defend their title in 2018 as the top team in baseball coming off the second-best regular season record in franchise history. The Astros bring back the entirety of their young lineup—with the exception of the now-retired Carlos Beltran— that led the league in both ISO (.196) and wRC (911) last season. On top of this, the pitching staff adds Gerrit Cole, acquired via trade this offseason, and Joe Smith, as well as a full season of Justin Verlander as their ace. While none of their pitchers are in the elite tier, the Astros staff still shows well, even finishing 2nd in the league in K/9 with 9.91. Despite their lackluster defense (which ranked 29th in Def last season at -38.7), the Astros still have all the tools they had last year and more, looking poised for a repeat.
2. Dodgers
Runners-up to the Astros in the Fall Classic, the Los Angeles Dodgers nonetheless had a fantastic 2017, finishing with their second highest win total in franchise history. The Dodgers were relatively quiet this offseason, uncharacteristic of the franchise in recent years, sending away a few assets in the name of cap savings. (The Dodgers? Cap savings? What?) While not making too many splashy additions, the Dodgers return with their solid if unspectacular offense that finished last season 2nd in hard contact percentage (35.5%) and 4th in ISO (.188). The Dodgers really look to shine in their pitching, with top hurlers Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen looking to replicate the success they’ve enjoyed for several years. The entire staff for the Dodgers was solid last year, finishing 4th in fWAR at 24.3. Putting these with their top-tier defense (good for 5th in Def last year at 24.5), it should be no surprise to see the Dodgers in the thick of the postseason hunt in 2018.
3. Yankees
The Yankees are returning the majority of their roster from last year’s squad that took the champion Astros to game 7 of the ALCS. The Yankees’ made the biggest move of the offseason by acquiring NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins without disrupting their current major league roster. They brought back C.C. Sabathia on a one year deal, and in doing so, bring back their same pitching rotation from the second half. With a near identical rotation and bullpen, the Yankees offense will look differently in 2018. Giancarlo Stanton averages 2.7x more extra bases and creates 79% more runs than the average batter while playing half of his games at a park with 12% less home runs by right-handed batters than average. He is now heading to a park with 23% more home runs by right handed hitters on average. Simply, Stanton was one of the best power hitters in the league at one of the least hitter friendly ballparks in the league. The added boost from Stanton will help counter the predicted, but not guaranteed, regression of Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Didi Gregorius, all who had career highs in their power numbers. Their main concern would be replacing Starlin Castro’s and Todd Frazier’s production. Both players registered ISO hovering .200 which places them in the good-to-great power hitter range according to Fangraphs. Being more than just power hitters, they registered 110 and 114 wRC+ for the Yankees respectively. All the focus for this team has been on their power which is boosted by playing in the best home run friendly park in the AL. Due to their ability to need one swing to score multiple runs, the Yankees should be the favorites in the pitching stacked AL East and challenge the Astros for the AL crown.
4. Indians
The Indians are fresh off a 102 win 2017, but a brutal early exit in the ALDS. Lucky for them, most of that roster is returning for 2018. The major difference is they signed Yonder Alonso to replace Carlos Santana, who signed with the Phillies. Santana was no doubt a huge presence in their lineup with a .363 OBP and 117 wRC+. Alonso is an interesting replacement for the Indians though. Looking at just 2017, his .365 OBP and 132 wRC+ are both improvements over Santana’s numbers, but digging deeper, they were both career highs for him in season when he played over 100 games. His previous highs were in 2015 with .361 OBP and 110 wRC+. Expect Alonso to return to slightly below his 2015 numbers where he remains a solid first basemen. One area to expect a drop in is patience. Santana has .88 BB/K while Alonso only has a .61 BB/K. For any slack due to Santana’s loss, Jason Kipnis will help make up the rest of the difference. He only played 90 games last season due to injury and registered a 82 wRC+. Look him to perform to his career averages in 2018 with a 110 wRC+ since he is healthy heading into the season. Their rotation is headlined by 2017 Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, but the wildcard is Danny Salazar. He will start the season on the DL with no timetable to return. Salazar has been an excellent pitcher when healthy averaging 10.51 K/9 and a 87 FIP- for his career. The health is a major issue though because over 5 seasons, he averages 20 starts per season. With the majority of this team returning, and the front office doing a decent job of replacing any lost production, the Indians are sure things for the postseason in a top heavy AL Central. Add in the improvement from young players such as Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, the Indians are looking to avenge last year’s early exit and have their eyes on the World Series crown.
5. Nationals
Coming off their third NL East title in the last four years followed by yet another loss in the Division Series, the Nationals are looking to finally make that elusive deep playoff run during Bryce Harper’s last contract year before he will presumably seek greener pastures in free agency. The Nationals return their entire starting lineup from last year and will be helped by the addition of bench bat and righty masher Matt Adams and the return of Adam Eaton from the gruesome season-ending knee injury he suffered in late April. Despite dealing with injuries to position players, the Nationals still ranked in the top 10 in most offensive categories. Although they remained in the middle of the pack ranking 14th in home runs, expect to potentially see that home run total rise if Harper, Turner, and Eaton are able to stay healthy in 2018. The rotation and bullpen mostly remain intact as the Nationals had (like most teams) a very stagnant winter. Scherzer, Strasburg, Roark, and Gonzalez form a nice 4-man core to the rotation as it projects to remain one of the best in baseball anchored by the ace duo of Strasburg and Scherzer. Roark and Gonzalez are reliable innings eaters that provide stability in the back end of the rotation. The bullpen remains a huge question mark but last year’s acquisitions of Doolittle, Madson and Kintzler have provided a strong base to build off of. Koda Glover, returning from injury, and hard-throwing lefty Enny Romero are two other guys who could make a huge impact in relief for the Nationals. The Nationals look to be contenders once again and finally avoid their postseason struggles.
6. Red Sox
The Red Sox enter 2018 in a strange situation. They won 93 games last season en route to a second straight AL East title, but had a quick exit from the playoffs which led them to fire 2013 World Series Champion manager John Farrell and replace him with rookie manager Alex Cora. Similarly to their rival Yankees, the Red Sox bring back almost an identical rotation and bullpen which was a top 10 staff all together. Also like the Yankees, it will be all about the offense. The Red Sox major acquisition: JD Martinez. The Red Sox were last in home runs and desperately needed a power bat in the middle of the lineup. It turns out, they found the best man for the job. He hit 45 home runs last year, and 29 in 62 games after the trade to Arizona. Mookie Betts led the Red Sox in homers with 24. Martinez’s 166 wRC+ and .690 SLG ranked fourth and first in baseball when combining his time in Detroit and Arizona. Also worth mentioning, those numbers were both higher than Giancarlo Stanton’s. After Martinez, the Red Sox will look to Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. to rebound from poor 2017’s plus a full season of rookie phenom Rafael Devers. Betts was extremely unlucky in 2017 registering a 35.7% hard hit percentage (career high) and a .268 BABIP (career low). A few breaks, and Betts 2017 could have looked drastically different. Bradley also experienced lows in BABIP and ISO since his offensive breakout of 2015, so while not as unlucky as Betts, Bradley is a perfect bounce back candidate as he will rise towards his career averages. Devers made a huge splash in about of a third of a season’s worth of games. He was their most productive third basemen and led all other Red Sox third basemen in wRC. Even if he does continue his hot start into 2018, Devers is the best third basemen the Red Sox had in years and will be an instant upgrade over a full season. The Red Sox pitch well and hit well, but the number to focus on is home runs. If they get the power they’ve been missing since David Ortiz retired, expect them back in October and contending for a spot in the World Series.
7. Cubs
The Cubs were extremely active this offseason after their NLCS loss to the Dodgers. They signed Drew Smyly (out for 2018 due to Tommy John surgery), Tyler Chatwood, Brandon Morrow, and Yu Darvish to replace John Lackey, Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, and Koji Uehara. Through these acquisitions, the Cubs are maintaining a surprisingly elite starting rotation. Last year, the Cubs starters ranked in the top 10 in ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and H/9. Despite rotating out Lackey and Arrieta for Darvish and Chatwood, expect the Cubs to continue to have a great pitching staff. The stocking up of their bullpen with Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek along with moving Mike Montgomery from the rotation to the bullpen gives the Cubs one of the deepest staffs in the major leagues. Yet, the real strength to this Cubs team is their lineup. Possessing arguably the most potent duo in baseball with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo (affectionately known as Bryzzo). In his first 3 big league seasons, Bryant has just flat out hit. Not only has he hit for average but he has shown off his immense power. His career triple slash line of .288/.388/.527 is good for a 143 wRC+ and he has also hit 94 home runs to go along with it. Bryant has also produced an absurd 21.6 fWAR which is second among position players only to Mike Trout over the last 3 years. Then there’s Rizzo. Like Bryant, Rizzo has outstanding plate discipline paired with outstanding power. Rizzo has hit at least 30 home runs in 4 consecutive seasons and his 133 wRC+ (33 percent above league average) last year was his lowest in the last 4 seasons. Over the last 4 seasons, Rizzo ranks 6th among position players in fWAR. Now let’s bring in the rest of the lineup. Willson Contreras is starting to build his case towards becoming the best catcher in the MLB. Addison Russell and Javier Baez combine to form one of the best defensive middle infields (which is great for the ground ball heavy Cubs pitching staff) and Kyle Schwarber is healthy, had a great spring, and lost a significant amount of weight. The bottom line is that this Cubs team is a World Series contender with a team built for October. Looking to win their 2nd World Series in 3 years after going over 100 years without one, this Cubs team looks ready to go.
8. Brewers
The Brewers were expected to continue on their post-Braun-PED-suspension downward trajectory last year, only to fall a single game short of an entirely unanticipated wild-card berth. This offseason, they’ve added the young, well-rounded, startlingly consistent Christian Yelich (who produced exactly 4.5 fWAR in three of his last four seasons) and former Royals standout Lorenzo Cain to an eclectic lineup that also included Eric Thames, a top-ten ISO power hitter only a year removed from South Korea, and Travis Shaw, who drove in 101 runs. Meanwhile, Manny Pina, who toiled in the minors for 11 years, emerged as a top defensive catcher and will look to offer continued support to perhaps the league’s most ground-ball-prone pitching staff, which somehow features #9 (injured ace Jimmy Nelson), #10 (Zach Davies), and now #14 (journeyman Jhoulys Chacin, newly acquired from San Diego) in ground-ball percentage. The Brewers have complemented last year’s unanticipated breakout players with an assortment of known quantities. It’ll be up to that former group to retain some semblance of their entirely unforeseen production. If they all regress, the Brewers may find themselves at the bottom of the barrel once again, but otherwise, they may be able to fend off St. Louis and even challenge Chicago for the NL Central crown.
9. Rockies
In Bud Black’s first year as the manager for the Colorado Rockies, the club increased its win total from 75 to 87, good for the 2nd Wild Card spot in the National League. Led by the breakout of center fielder Charlie Blackmon, the Rockies continued their positive trajectory by improving their record for the 3rd year in a row. As always with a team in Coors Field, the Rockies are built around their potent offense that finished 4th in the league in wOBA (.332). One potential reg flag to keep an eye on for the Rockies is their league-leading BABIP (.332) that suggests they may have been a bit fortunate with their offense last year, but the wOBA figure mentioned earlier indicates that they should be just fine. The Rockies’ pitching is always somewhat of a sore subject for the ballclub, as the thin air in Denver plays both ways. One thing of note that the Rockies accomplished last year pitching-wise: they led the league in GB/FB (1.54), demonstrating a push for pitchers who can keep the ball on the ground and, in Coors Field’s case, in the ballpark. Look for the Rockies to continue to grow as they have for the past few years and make the postseason in consecutive years for the first team in franchise history.
10. Twins
Representing the MLB’s biggest single season improvement from 2016 to 2017 (and biggest surprise), the Minnesota Twins made huge strides in 2017, finishing the regular season 85-77. If the second half of 2017 is any indication, Byron Buxton may have FINALLY broken out. He and the ever-consistent Brian Dozier spearhead a Twins lineup with decent speed (9th in the league at 95 stolen bases) and walk rate (tied for 5th in the league at 9.5%) that indicate that the team is able to manufacture runs despite league average power. On the pitching side, the Twins have little to write home about other than young starter Jose Berrios, who, like Buxton, appears to have finally figured something out. The Twins did do a good job in 2017 of limiting excess baserunners, posting the 4th best walk rate against in the league at 7.8%. While Minnesota lacks a true strength as a ballclub, they also lack any glaring weaknesses, and represent one of the most well-rounded teams in all of baseball. Look for them to defend their spot in the AL Wild Card game, with the hope that this year they can advance to the ALDS and try to win their first game there since 2004.
11. Diamondbacks
Returning to the postseason for the first time since 2011, the Arizona Diamondbacks had a great season in 2017, representing the 2nd largest single-season improvement after the Twins. Despite a relatively stable offseason talent-wise, the D-backs were dealt a significant blow by Major League Baseball with the announcement that a humidor will be used this year at Chase Field. The ramifications for this addition aren’t entirely known as of yet, but look for the ballpark that finished 2017 in 3rd per ESPN’s Park Factor to drop off significantly with the introduction of the humidor. Arizona’s offense took full advantage of the favorable conditions in Phoenix last season, posting a .190 ISO figure as a team, good for second in the league. All may not be lost with new park conditions, however, as the Arizona lineup is positioned to increase its stolen base total based on their Spd rating of 5.91 (good for 1st in the league in 2017). In addition to this, the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff will look to build off the successful 2017 they turned in when they finished 5th among pitching staffs in fWAR with 23.2. Keep an eye on the D-backs’ bullpen, as they replace former closer Fernando Rodney with former All-Star Brad Boxberger, who should represent a marked improvement. Another situation to monitor will be that of Zack Greinke, as there have been rumblings in Spring Training of his velocity falling completely off the map, sometimes dipping below 85 on his fastball. Was this just the seasoned vet easing into things or is Father Time catching up with the 34-year-old? Look for the Diamondbacks to challenge for the 2nd Wild Card spot, but fall just short of division rival Colorado (those two series the teams play in September will be some must-watch late-season baseball that surely won’t disappoint).
12. Cardinals
St. Louis does not tend to tolerate average baseball teams, and last year’s Cardinals were dangerously close to middle-of-the-road. Bright spots in a season that ended in a rare September elimination included Matt Carpenter, whose remarkable plate discipline (top-five walk percentage!) allowed him to turn his worst full season of hitting ever into his best season of on-base percentage since 2013. If his dazzling spring training, featuring a 1.457 OPS (albeit in a small sample size) is any indication, off-season swing adjustments are going to pay dividends this year. In the outfield, Tommy Pham is bound to regress from a 2017 in which, his congenital eye condition seemingly remedied, he led the team in fWAR with 5.9 — no other hitter exceeded 3.0. The team is prepared, however; the corner outfield spots will look somewhat different with the team having jettisoned Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty in favor of Marcell Ozuna, who chose to leave the no-longer-sunny climes of Miami, where the Marlins were hemorrhaging payroll, for an apparent NL Central contender, much like his ex-teammate Christian Yelich. The real unknowns, however, are on the mound. No reliever on the team exceeded 1.1 fWAR last year besides the newly acquired Dominic Leone, and the rotation has quite a lot riding on Luke Weaver’s continued progression (last year, he led the team in both strikeout percentage and strikeout-to-walk ratio). If one flaw of the Cardinals’ causes them to fall short of a wild-card berth this season, expect it to be the inconsistent pitching, which plagued them last year and will likely do so again after such a quiet offseason.
13. Angels
The Angels have been on the playoff bubble for a considerable portion of their existence (though they’ll always have 2002!). Last year, even with Mike Trout returning semi-triumphantly from injury to produce his most disciplined offensive season yet (1.04 BB/K), the team went 10-18 in September, with one six-game losing streak in particular sinking their hopes of October glory. Perhaps at last realizing that it would be inadvisable to squander the prime years of the league’s best player on a sub-.500 team, the Angels were one of the most active participants throughout an otherwise Lukewarm Stove offseason. They added Ian Kinsler, the league’s top second baseman in UZR/150, to complement Andrelton Simmons, perhaps the MLB’s single best overall defensive player. Though Kinsler’s offensive production declined considerably as he wasted away on the league’s worst team, anything would be an upgrade after the total -0.3 fWAR produced by the Angels’ second basemen last season. Meanwhile, Zack Cozart arrives from Cincinnati following an entirely unforeseen breakout year in which he complimented his traditionally solid defense with the single best offensive performance of any player at his position — Cozart led all shortstops in wRAA, wOBA, wRC+, and a host of other acronyms. He’ll slide over to third base alongside Simmons to help form a formidable infield (let’s not dwell too much on the possibility of *shudder* 38-year-old Albert Pujols playing first base for a prolonged period of time). The Angels’ big gamble this offseason, of course, was pouring an immense amount of resources into courting and eventually signing much-ballyhooed international prospect Shohei Ohtani, who has given no indication during spring training that he can transform the team’s middling pitching staff into something capable of reliably taking on the Astros’ elite group of hitters, let alone that he can serve as a two-way threat as he did in Hokkaido. That considerable uncertainty, plus a bottom-five starting rotation, plus a potential regression from Cozart, makes it hard to count on the Angels snagging a wild-card spot from the Red Sox or Twins.
14. Mets
Relying on an aging lineup and a fragile starting rotation, don’t expect much from the 2018 iteration of the Mets. With stud OF Michael Conforto starting the season on the DL, the offense will have to rely on OF Yoenis Cespedes and newly signed 3B Todd Frazier. Frazier is the most intriguing name in this 2018 lineup as he is coming off of a productive season where he continued his trend of having great discipline and power but terrible contact skills. He posted a 14.4% walk rate to pair with 27 HRs but only hit .213. His .213/.344/.428 line was good for a 108 wRC+ and along with his solid defense at third he produced 3.0 fWAR last season. 2 years for only 17 million is a great contract for Frazier and may increase his trade value as the season heads towards July. The rotation is interesting due to the presence of power arms but the mugginess of what combination of the five will stay healthy and/or perform dampens any serious chance that the Mets have at making the playoffs. Noah Syndergaard looks to be a Cy Young contender if (and that’s a big if) he can stay healthy and deGrom has been a solid contributor the last 4 years. Signing Jason Vargas is a huge move that will look to provide stability to the middle of the rotation (once he returns from injury). Beyond that there are huge red flags with Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Robert Gsellman and it’s unclear what combination of those three will occupy the last two spots in the rotation. Harvey has battled injuries the last two years and has struggled even when healthy. If Harvey has a big first half look for the Mets to capitalize on his trade value before he hits free agency next offseason. Wheeler returned in 2017 after missing all of 2015 and 2016 with an injury and then proceeded to get injured again in July. Hopefully he is healthy and ready to go for 2018 but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him moved into the bullpen with Seth Lugo taking his spot in the rotation. Gsellman struggled in his first extended stay in the rotation as he failed to miss bats (14.6% K%) while giving up a lot of home runs (1.32 HR/9). Those are huge red flags for a young pitcher who throws a hard sinker. Additionally, the Mets are hoping that Steven Matz can return from his elbow injury and solidify the back end of this volatile rotation. Only if everything goes right for the Mets will they have a shot at a Wild Card spot. Whether buyers or sellers, look for them to be very active in the month of July.
15. Mariners
When you look up “mediocrity” in the dictionary, you’re likely to find a picture of soup, Bing search engine, and, of course, the Seattle Mariners. Last year, the Mariners finished with a winning percentage of .481, equivalent to their combined winning percentage over the last 6 years. Across the board the last season, Seattle proved to be just about average. The Mariner offense finished 12th in fWAR with 21.5, and in 13th in stolen bases with 89. In the pitching department, the Mariners maintained an ERA of 4.46, good for 16th in the Majors. And finally on defense Seattle finished 8.5 in Def, placing them 12th in the league. As for their offseason, it was, in a word, puzzling. They traded for Dee Gordon, who, alone, is a solid acquisition. But, in a lineup with the most expensive 2nd baseman ever in Robinson Cano, makes little to no sense as he will be forced into center field, a position with which he has zero prior experience. Maybe Seattle turns a corner this year with Gordon’s speed and table-setting prowess. But, likely, their fans will just have to take the old adage to heart: “You can’t spell Seattle without settle.”
16. Phillies
The Phillies made the first and last huge splash in this otherwise quiet offseason by signing Carlos Santana to a 3 year 60 million dollar deal and Jake Arrieta to a 3 year 75 million dollar deal. Santana has been a consistent producer over his career continually possessing double digit walk rates to go along with his light tower power. Luckily for him and the Phillies, it appears as if his skill set will age well. Arrieta is coming off of a down year, but the Phillies hope that he can return to something closer to his 2015 season than his 2017 season. Other than Santana, this Phillies lineup is reasonably young and Rhys Hoskins looks to do some damage in his first full season. Similar to Santana, Hoskins has great plate discipline paired with plus-plus power that allowed him to rack up a 17.5% walk rate and hit 18 HRs in only 212 PAs. There’s probably going to be some regression but Hoskins still projects to produce numbers well above-average. After trading Freddy Galvis, the Phillies are looking to the future and handing over the reins to J.P. Crawford at shortstop. Crawford looks like he will be a solid all around shortstop to build around as he can hit, projects as a plus defender, and is a great athlete. Additionally, Scott Kingery has mashed his way onto the big league club and just signed a deal to cover his first 6 years of service time in addition to three club options for his first 3 years of free agency. The Phillies ranked toward the bottom in most offensive categories and are hoping that these young additions can reverse that trend. In the rotation, nobody has an extended track record of big league success besides the newly acquired Arrieta. Aaron Nola is coming off of a wonderful season where he struck out 26.6% of the hitters he faced good for 14th out of 75 pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched. He also had great command only walking 7.1% of hitters and had a 19.5% K-BB% which placed him 16th out of those same 75 pitchers. Velasquez is another intriguing arm to watch on this staff as he had a great 2016 season but 2017 was full of injuries. He will be healthy and ready to go in 2018 and if he can return with the electric stuff that he has shown in years past, the Phillies have a dangerous arm in the middle of their rotation. The rebuild is well underway in Philadelphia and their farm system remains extremely deep. Expect them to win a few more games than they did in 2017 but the playoffs may still be a little ways away but still closer than you think.
17. Padres
A team that can be described as nothing if not consistent, the San Diego Padres have won no more than 77 and no less than 68 since 2011. While not quite good, the Padres have hung around for the past several years as a constant, albeit below average, team in a league with so many unknowns. This offseason, the Padres added marquee free-agent Eric Hosmer to their lineup, and were able to bring back long-time fan-favorite (and 10th best player all-time for the franchise in terms of RWAR) Chase Headley after his 3.5 year stint in the Bronx. Hosmer and Headley fit the mold of the Padres lineup as corner infielders that primarily hit for average but can certainly provide 20 HR power. Their insertion into the San Diego batting order will have them looking to bolster a lineup that finished last in the league in batting average at .234. All indications say that, with an increase in average, the Padres should be able to advance runners into scoring positions with their Spd rating of 4.5, good for 10th in the league. Aside from their potential improvements in the batting department, the same cannot be said for their pitching. On a staff whose Opening Day starter is Clayton Richard, there does not seem to be much reason for optimism. The Padres finished 2017 with just 7.5 fWAR from their pitching staff, with a combined 5.7 of that fWAR coming from their closer (and overall fWAR leader in 2017) Brad Hand and now-departed starter Jhoulys Chacin. Look for the Padres to come out with an improved offense, with the potential for middling average and run production, but with little to show for it in the win column without anything close to decent pitching.
18. Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are in a strange era in their franchise. Edwin Encarnacion left in 2016 for Cleveland, and Jose Bautista remains unsigned. The Blue Jays have shown no interest in him, so that leaves only Josh Donaldson as the main offensive threat in their lineup. While trade rumors will surround him all season, Donaldson will no doubt continue to mash. In an injury shortened 2017, he still produced a 5 fWAR. Now healthy, expect him to return to at least a 6 fWAR season. Justin Smoak will be another interesting offensive threat in their lineup. In 2017, he played a career high 158 games and registered a 132 wRC+ along with a 3.4 fWAR. However, it should be noted his previous highs in those categories were 132, 112, and .7. His best season was 2013 where he had the 112 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR while playing in 131 games. The veteran presence of Kendrys Morales and Curtis Granderson and hopeful breakout year from Randal Grichuk will provide stability to the lineup. Pitching wise, the Blue Jays are bringing back almost everyone from last year’s staff which was slightly above league average registering a 97 FIP-. The rotation will receive an expected boost from Aaron Sanchez who only started 8 games in 2017. In his one full season as a starter, he started 30 games with a 7.55 K/9 and 3.8 fWAR. 2018 has the potential to be a great or disaster of a season for the Blue Jays. The best case scenario is Smoak builds upon his breakout season, and Sanchez returns to his almost ace-like form pushing the Blue Jays to contend for the second wild card spot. A more likely scenario is the Blue Jays will be a middle of a pact team but not good enough to contend for the second wild card spot which could lead them to become sellers at the trade deadline.
19. Reds
The blame for the Cincinnati Reds’ continued mediocrity has to fall on its truly dreadful pitching staff. A mixture of utterly anonymous rookies (one of whom was, in fact, named Rookie) including former basketball player Amir Garrett (7.13 ERA) and ancient pitchers like washed-up, stem-cell replenished, 40-year-old Bronson Arroyo combined to form undoubtedly baseball’s worst staff in terms of pitching control, one that had the league’s highest HR/9 and second-highest BB/9 and, improbably, hit more batters with pitches than any other team. The lone bright spots were solid closer Raisel Iglesias and, surprisingly and perhaps more notably, starter Luis Castillo, whose exceptional 1.075 WHIP and 6.4 H/9 are certainly something for Cincinnati fans to get excited about, given the extent to which their various pitching experiments have gotten in the way of their offensive prowess. While the pitching motley crew was driving the Reds into the ground, Joey Votto was busy playing 162 games at first base and leading MLB in on-base percentage, walks (with a 1.61 walk-to-strikeout ratio), adjusted batting runs, and adjusted batting wins. He was aided by 59 stolen bases and 11 triples from the speedy Billy Hamilton plus career years from Gold Glove recipient Tucker Barnhart, Scooter Gennett, and the departed Zack Cozart. The advent of highly touted prospect and newly minted shortstop Nick Senzel will take some pressure off Jose Peraza in his attempts to replace Cozart’s production, but ultimately, the onus falls on the Reds’ much-maligned pitching staff to carry them out of the NL Central basement.
20. White Sox
The White Sox are looking to make the leap from bad team in 2017 to a bad team with loads of potential in 2018. They were pretty quiet over the offseason and decided to hold onto their top prospects instead of swinging for the fences with Manny Machado. A few of those prospects will have major parts to play in 2018 to keep the White Sox respectable. Offensively, they still have their rock in Jose Abreu. Abreu has been fantastic over 4 seasons with the White Sox slugging an impressive .524 with a 139 wRC+. Surprisingly, he is continuing to improve as his K% has dropped very season. Outside of Abreu, this team’s offensive success comes down to Yoan Moncada and Avisail Garcia. Moncada, the former top prospect in all of baseball, impressed in 54 games in 2017 with a 104 wRC+ and an impressive 0.9 fWAR. He will no doubt build on those numbers due to his talent, but he will have to improve his 34.3% K% to live up to his potential. Garcia had a breakout 2017 and was 4 win player. However, his .392 BABIP and 5.9% BB% from 2017 is not encouraging if you are expecting Garcia to repeat that performance. Since this isn’t 2014, James Shields will be pretty much useless for the White Sox. His .270 BABIP from 2017 shows that he wasn’t really unlucky, but he was so bad last year with a 5.83 FIP, it could be easy for him to improve as long as he doesn’t fall apart on the mound. All eyes will be on top prospects Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, both acquired for Adam Eaton in 2016. Giolito has a terrible 5.99 FIP and 3.24 BB/9 over 66.2 IP across 2 seasons. While uninspiring, until we see more of him in the big leagues, Giolito is better than the numbers say so far. Lopez also has a small sample size of 91.2 IP across 2 seasons, but has been solid for a young pitcher with a 101 FIP-. Like Giolito, Lopez also possess the talent needed to succeed in the bigs, so a full season of starts with give a better understanding of his future on the team. A lot could happen for the White Sox in 2018. With a top farm system, it could only take one call-up for their season to be turned around, but they are relying on a lot of unreliable players early on. The White Sox will flirt with trading Jose Abreu, but their prospects will give them jolts throughout the season. While not full of established talent, they have enough talent to stay ahead of the Royals and Tigers for third place in the central.
21. Royals
The Royals enter 2018 beginning a new era in their franchise’s history. This is no longer the team that made back to back World Series and won it all in 2015. They managed to resign Alcides Escobar and Mike Moustakas, but saw Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain leave for contracts the Royals couldn’t afford. While bringing back Moustakas and his average 116 wRC+ from 2015-2017 helps, there is no hiding the fact that the Royals offense will struggle without Hosmer and Cain. During their time with the Royals, Hosmer averaged .342 OBP and 111 wRC+ while Cain average .333 OBP and 100 wRC+. In 2017, Hosmer and Cain were both 1 fWAR higher than the Royals next best player. Salvador Perez will hopefully continue to be a league average catcher once he returns from injury, and Whit Merrifield has the talent to build on his breakout season where he had a .324 OBP and 105 wRC+. Jorge Soler will also be a league average contributor offensively, but it is hard to rely on him since he has only played in 246 games across 4 seasons. The Royals rotation is also nothing to brag about either. Danny Duffy will start opening day and should give the Royals 160+ innings with a respectable K/9 around 8. However, the rest of rotation does not look promising after him. The Royals lost their leaders and stars in Hosmer and Cain, and it will show in 2018. It seems like the best case scenario for this squad is around 70-75 wins and as they battle the Tigers to avoid last place in the AL Central.
22. Athletics
The A’s just haven’t been the same since their 2014 collapse. Above all else, their sieve-like defense has been responsible for their recent failures, as it has ranked worst in the league for back-to-back seasons. No player bears more responsibility for this than Khris Davis. Davis giveth, in the form of 43 home runs and 110 RBI, and taketh away, by single-handedly accounting for -13 DRS. Thankfully, the A’s managed to rid themselves of a slew of defensive liabilities — namely Yonder Alonso, Ryon Healy, and Jaycob Brugman — and thanks to the wise acquisition of Stephen Piscotty, they’ll be able to shift Davis to DH frequently in 2018. One challenge for Oakland will be accounting for the offensive production lost in sloughing off those players. What separates the A’s from many of their competitors at the bottom of these rankings, however, is their complement of young, incredibly promising hitters, most notably a pair of 23-year-old Matts in the infield. Chapman will start at the hot corner and be expected to step into a starring role right away after accumulating 2.7 fWAR in a memorable half-season. Olson is a similar player who left an indelible impression on baseball by posting 162 wRC+ in a mere 59 games (and doing so in style, with .392 ISO leading to a .651 slugging percentage!). Dustin Fowler, a center fielder thrust into action by recent moves in the outfield, is a high-potential hitter... with next to no plate discipline and zero career MLB at-bats. The small sample sizes all around make this year’s Athletics offense exceptionally difficult to project. The pitching staff is just as much of an enigma. Besides struggling to get out of jams — they had MLB’s second-lowest left-on-base percentage, which may also have been a product of the aforementioned defensive incompetence — the staff was middling and was mostly defined by the players they lost as the season progressed, including Sonny Gray, Ryan Madson, and Sean Doolittle. If key starters like Kendall Graveman and Sean Manaea can produce, however, and if the A’s defense avoids sinking to the unfathomable depths of 2016 or 2017, the young hitters alone could excel enough for this team to take an enormous step forward.
23. Rays
The Rays enter 2018 after a strange offseason. They traded away 2017 all-star Corey Dickerson and solid starter Jake Odorizzi for uninspiring return and lost Logan Morrison, with a surprising 130 wRC+ in 2017, in free agency. The trade that hurts the franchise and fans the most is the departure of Evan Longoria. Forget one of their best players last season, Longoria is undoubtedly the best player in Rays franchise history. The offense will struggle without his production and leadership. They brought in CJ Cron to play first base who at best is average offensively with a career 107 wRC+. The big concern for him is strikeouts due to his K% jumping from 16.9% in 2016 to 25.7% in 2017. Kevin Kiermaier is the only returning starter with a fWAR over 1.6 with his 3 fWAR. The Rays will rely on their pitching to keep their team respectable as the staff was above average in 2017 with a 97 FIP-. All eyes will be on ace Chris Archer and former Rays’ top pitching prospect Blake Snell to make up for the losses of Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb. Looking at Archer’s 10-12 record with a 4.07 ERA from 2017 does not tell the entire story. He was still a strikeout artist with 11.15 K/9 and was unlucky as shown by his .325 BABIP and 3.40 FIP. While the record may not improve due to lack of run support, Archer will again be an excellent pitcher for the Rays which may lead to them trading him. In 43 starts across 2 seasons, Blake Snell has been a reliable pitcher as shown by his 91 FIP-. If he is going to take the next step for the Rays, he will have to better his control. His career K/BB sits at an ugly 1.97 which won’t get the job done in the big leagues. The Rays have experienced a lot of offensive and pitching turnover over the offseason, and the trade rumors are just beginning to swirl around this club. The Rays just do not have the firepower to compete in a loaded AL East, and if this club spirals out of control early, the Ray will be open for business at the deadline.
24. Rangers
Texas has fallen hopelessly far behind in the AL West arms race, though they’re certainly not lacking in power. A squad thoroughly determined to swing for the fences in batter-friendly Globe Life Park, the Rangers’ arsenal of heavy hitters did not disappoint in that regard, producing the third-most home runs in MLB. Unfortunately, this impressive mark was accompanied by the fourth-highest strikeout percentage. The poster boy for this power-hitting modus operandi was Joey Gallo, who was sent down on strikes on an astonishingly terrible 36.8% of his at-bats. However, he somehow managed to salvage his season with a top-ten walk percentage and also finished as the league’s third-most-powerful ISO hitter behind Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. Elvis Andrus continued his quiet consistency, as did an ancient Adrian Beltre; they were the team’s two fWAR leaders. The remainder of the lineup includes several aging yet solidly average hitters such as Shin-Soo Choo and Robinson Chirinos, who like Beltre are still holding up against all odds. The same could not be said for the team’s pitiful pitching, which, especially after they dealt franchise centerpiece Yu Darvish, was if nothing else a sight to behold. The staff struck out fewer batters than any other team. Andrew Cashner found himself particularly incapable of finishing batters off, finishing last in MLB in strikeout-to-walk ratio; he’ll fit in exceptionally well with the Orioles’ deeply ineffective rotation this year. In spite of having dumped most of last year’s ineffective starters in favor of an entirely new batch of mediocre castoffs — those being Doug Fister, Matt Moore, and Mike Minor — these same old (emphasis on the old) Rangers figure to make all the missteps they did in 2017 over again.
25. Giants
It’s always when the word “dynasty” get thrown around that it all starts to go wrong. Yes, the San Francisco Giants, authors of the so-called “even year magic,” saw it all go wrong in 2017. Finishing with the second worst record in the league, the Giants finished dead-last in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ with .132, .296, and 83, respectively. And, to add insult to this avalanche of injury, they finished 3rd in BABIP, suggesting that their bottom-10 batting average was rather fortunate. Add this to their rather average pitching performance with an fWAR around league average, and the story only gets worse for the Giants. Despite all of this, the proverbial cherry on top has to be the offseason San Francisco handed in. With a set of moves that can only be described as delusional, the Giants not only avoided the trade market at last year’s deadline (with the single exception of Eduardo Nuñez), but also got OLDER in the offseason. With acquisitions like Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria, and Austin Jackson, you truly have to wonder if GM Bobby Evans thought the Giants finished 98-64 instead of 64-98. Even if the Giants had a solid roster that was in win-now mode, these acquisitions seem questionable at best, with the best days likely far behind all of these players. If the Giants can stay healthy? Yeah, maybe they have a shot at finishing .500. Maybe EVERYONE has a season somewhat close to their career-best. In reality? Look for at least 25 DL stints this season from the Giants, with Bumgarner and Samardzija already getting off to an early start. Maybe after this year the Giants will realize their situation and not try trading for, say, Nelson Cruz and Kendrys Morales next winter, but until then, it’s going to be a rough ride.
26. Braves
The Braves continue to stockpile talent as they edge closer and closer to contention. They may not make the playoffs this year but should be an entertaining team to watch each night and are most likely only two to three years away from being a legitimate World Series contender. Freddie Freeman is the heart and soul of this Braves lineup coming off of yet another incredible season despite missing some time with a wrist injury. Over the last 5 seasons, Freeman hasn’t had a season below a 132 wRC+ and is coming off of back to back season with a 152 wRC+. He is a steady presence in the middle of the order under contract through 2021 and will be a great mentor for the Braves young stars. The middle of the infield has the potential to be one of the best in baseball a few years down the line with Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson. Albies, making his major league debut at 20 posted a 112 wRC+ to go along with great defense and baserunning. Swanson struggled mightily in his first full season posting a 66 wRC+ despite possessing a 10.7% walk rate. Expect him to improve and continue to provide solid defense at shortstop in 2018. In the outfield, Ender Inciarte has been one of the league’s elite defensive center fielders as well producing at around a league average level on offense. Another guy under contract through 2021, Inciarte provides a reliable building block in the outfield. Yet the most important name in the Braves outfield this year will be Ronald Acuna. The 20 year old mega-prospect will get his first look in the big leagues this year (after some service time manipulation). Although all eyes will be on Acuna don’t forget about another Braves prospect Luiz Gohara. The 21 year old was a September call-up and struck out 32 in 29.1 innings. Although he posted a 4.91 ERA, his 2.75 FIP suggests that his ERA may drop in 2018. Possessing electric stuff, the Braves are hoping that Gohara can fill out the back end of the rotation. At the front of the staff will be Julio Teheran. Throughout the last 5 years, Teheran has alternated between a solid arm at the top of the rotation and a reliable innings eater better suited for the back end of a rotation. The Teheran that shows up in 2018 will determine the course of the Braves season. 2018 may not be the Braves’ year, but the future is bright in Atlanta. With a plethora of pitching prospects and young major league ready position players, an immensely talented core is beginning to take shape and usher in a new of age of Atlanta baseball reminiscent to the Braves of the 1990s.
27. Orioles
Get ready for a 2018 full of “(insert team here) is interested in Manny Machado” headlines. The Orioles decided to hold onto him and sign Andrew Cashner and Alex Cobb to try and make one last run at the postseason because the O’s not being able to afford Machado is the worst kept secret in baseball. When looking at their lineup, you might be surprised to find them so low on our list. If the Orioles have one strength, it is power. In 2017, they had 4 hitters with an ISO above .200 and one hitter at .195. Numbers show to expect the same power from Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado, and Adam Jones as they continue to provide above league average offense. The hitters to focus on are Chris Davis and Trey Mancini. For Chris Davis, health is a major factor as shown in 2016 and 2017. In 2016, he played 157 games, provided elite power, and had an impressive 112 wRC+ for someone who strikes out 32% of the time. In 2017, he played 128 games, still had great power, but the increased strikeouts and less chance to hit homeruns led to a 92 wRC+. Even if he plays, that 32% K% will always hold him back. Mancini had a rookie season that no one saw coming by having a .195 ISO and 117 wRC+. His .352 BABIP shows he was a bit lucky, but should still provide above average power for this lineup. While the lineup seems promising, their pitching staff will doom them. In 2017, they were in the bottom three in the league in K/9, HR/9 and HR/FB. They signed Cashner and Cobb to address these issues. Both will help in limiting homeruns based on their career numbers, and should provide an overall boost to the rotation with Cashner’s 3.99 FIP and Cobb’s 3.68 FIP. However, they have to be healthy which has been a big problem for these two. Between the both of them, they only have one season of 30+ starts and that was Cashner in 2015. Their bullpen will also be missing a huge piece in Zach Britton. He is not expected back until July, and has accumulated 5.2 fWAR over the last 3 seasons. The Orioles may start strong, but their awful pitching won’t be able to keep pace with their offence. When Spring turns to Summer, the O’s will be out of contention, but will become the most intriguing team at the trade deadline with a chance to jumpstart the rebuild process.
28. Pirates
For the historically futile Pirates, a team struggling to appeal to a city with increasingly foggy memories of a World Series victory irretrievably far in the past, the decision to jettison franchise cornerstones Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole was the ultimate act of resignation. It’s unclear what Pittsburgh’s moribund offense (27th in fWAR, 29th in home runs) will do to replace McCutchen’s team-leading 28 home runs, but slugging first-baseman Josh Bell and 2017 All-Star Josh Harrison figure to shoulder much more of the load. In non-Josh news, Starling Marte is now the team’s only discernible threat on the base paths. When he wasn’t suspended for PEDs for half of last season, he managed to land in the top five in the NL in stolen-base percentage. Meanwhile, with the exception of up-and-coming young closer Felipe Rivero, whom the team just locked down for four additional years, sub-4.00 ERAs are few and far between on a team that’s counting on players like a convalescent Joe Musgrove, an inconsistent Jameson Taillon, and an aging Ivan Nova to anchor its 2018 rotation against formidable offensive teams like the Cubs. Expect a long and futile season, or several seasons, from the most thoroughly and saddeningly nondescript Pirates team in recent memory.
29. Tigers
Although it may be difficult, there are times when the reset button must be hit. That is where the Tigers stand now. They traded away Justin Verlander last August and Victor Martinez has finally reached the final year of his contract. Yet Miguel Cabrera will still be under contract through at least 2023. The aging slugger had a down year last year but the underlying metrics suggest that he’s due for at least a slight rebound. His batted ball quality was actually quite impressive. According to Statcast, Cabrera ranked 40th out of 387 players in barrels per plate appearance as well as 10th in average exit velocity. Yet, he only hit 16 home runs and produced a .249/.329/.399 slash line good for a 91 wRC+. Aside from Cabrera, Nick Castellanos is another name to watch out for. He’s been a solid hitter the last two years and hit a career high 26 home runs last year. As far as the rotation goes, Michael Fulmer, Matt Boyd, and Daniel Norris are young arms to keep an eye on while veteran innings eaters, Jordan Zimmermann and Francisco Liriano round out the rotation. The Tigers possess 4 big time arms in their farm system but will look to add some hitting prospects this year. Expect another mediocre season from them as they begin their path back to contention.
30. Marlins
At first, Marlins fans thought that they could rejoice following Jeffrey Loria’s sale of the team to a new ownership group that included Derek Jeter. However, the new ownership group decided to screw over the fans and burn the team to the ground while getting rid of fan favorites like Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich. What let the Marlins down last year wasn’t a lack of production on offense but instead an awful pitching staff. Yet the new ownership group decided not to pursue pitching and instead decided to go into full rebuild mode. Following the trades, the new lineup loses almost all of its firepower and now young, unproven talent is paired alongside a few aging veterans. J.T. Realmuto is the only core member left but even he may be traded at some point before the July 31st trade deadline. Starlin Castro has yet to appear in a game for the Marlins and already wants out of Miami. Justin Bour has hit well but has been unable to stay healthy and is another piece the Marlins should look to move come July. On the bright side, it looks like young bats such as Lewis Brinson, Magneuris Sierra and Brian Anderson will get an extended look at the major league level. As for the pitching staff, they do have some young arms but once again this Marlins staff looks like they will be towards the bottom of the league. Last year, the Marlins staff had 12 pitchers start 5 games or more which was tied for 1st in the major leagues. Expect that number to remain about the same as the 3-4-5 starters will most likely change many times throughout the season in order to get many arms an extended big league look. The only title that the 2018 Marlins will be competing for is the 1st overall pick in the 2019 draft.
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