Tier 1: The Contenders
1. Golden State Warriors
By Max Carlin
Key Stat: Stephen Curry’s +6.65 Player Impact Plus-Minus (per BBall Index)
The Golden State Warriors feel inevitable. Part of that’s five All-Stars, a Defensive Player of the Year, an MVP, the second-greatest shooter of all-time (who flanks the greatest shooter of all-time). At its core, though, the Warriors’ inevitability is singular. He is diminutive, looking anything but dominant, played his college ball at the NCAA powerhouse of Davidson, doesn’t always boast gaudy box score numbers. Nonetheless, Stephen Curry’s +6.65 PIPM paced the NBA in 2017-18. For seven months per year, Curry is the best basketball player in the world (LeBron James’ regular season apathy is well-documented at this point). Curry’s impact is all-time high, rivaling--besting, even--the likes of James and Michael Jordan in their primes. By existing, Curry guarantees his team a hyper-elite offense. Sure, his individual scoring is valuable, but it’s his gravity that keeps his team spinning. Curry pulls people open, creates baskets without touching the ball, without doing anything but existing. Every year, Curry’s on/off differentials point to the same conclusion. Each of the last four years, the Warriors have had the point differential of a 70+ win team with Curry on the floor. With Curry off, the team’s been painfully ordinary, highlighted by a meager +1.4 net rating with Curry off in 2017-18. No matter how many MVPs, how many All-Stars this team adds, it all comes down to Curry. And last time I checked, he still dons the blue and gold. Inevitable they remain.
Stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass
2. Boston Celtics
By Trey Checkett
Key Stat: Gordon Hayward’s PSA: 120.7 in 2016-17 (per Cleaning the Glass)
The Celtics are loaded. They have an uncontainable scorer in Kyrie Irving, young studs in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and an all-star center in Al Horford. They have a deep bench and arguably the best coach in the league, Brad Stevens. However, the one question mark remaining with the Celtics is Gordon Hayward. Coming off a severe ankle injury, which held him out for all but five promising minutes and fifteen fleeting seconds of the 2017-2018 season, how will he come back? Will he be the same Gordon we knew in Utah, who in his last season with the Jazz, scored 120.7 points per 100 shot attempts? Hayward lead his Utah Jazz team to the Western Conference Semifinals, where he averaged nearly 25 points per game. Fortunately for Hayward, he is in a low-pressure environment, where he will be able to ease his way back. The 2017-2018 Hayward-and-Irving-less Celtics came within a few minute of toppling LeBron James and company in the Eastern Conference Finals. With two bona fide stars re-entering the fold, the East runs through Boston.
3. Houston Rockets
By Zach Bell
Key Stat: 53-7 when James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela have all played
Two games in a row last year, the Rockets were up double digits with 24 minutes to go before their first NBA Finals berth since 1995. In both games, a combination of a Golden State burst and a Houston collapse kept the Rockets from the Finals. Losing Chris Paul was a major factor for this team, but that doesn’t excuse 27 straight missed threes in Game 7 of the WCF. Over the offseason, the Rockets lost two of their best defenders in Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute, along with Ryan Anderson while adding Carmelo Anthony, James Ennis III, Michael Carter Williams, Brandon Knight, and Marquese Chriss. The general consensus is that the Rockets got noticeably worse after all these moves, but if these role players can step their games up by knocking down open threes and staying locked in to the Rockets switch-heavy defensive scheme, the Rockets improve. Anthony, although a defensive liability, has tremendous upside, has already seemed to be more selfless in Houston than in Oklahoma City, and is only on a 1 year, $2.4 million contract, so the team is not massively invested in him. Ariza and Mbah a Moute may have been great defensively, but the Rockets more than survived with Mbah a Moute off the court essentially the whole playoffs and the two only shot 36.8% and 36.4% on their threes respectively, which is my no means anything special. The true determinant in the Rockets’ success this year will simply be dependent on their health. With their Big 3 of James Harden, Paul, and Clint Capela all playing, the Rockets went 53-7, and that includes the playoffs. If they can stay healthy through the playoffs, the Rockets will have a great shot at the title this year.
4. Toronto Raptors
By Jacob Linker
Key Stat: Defensive rating of 103.4 in 17-18
How can the number 1 seed in the Eastern Conference improve? The list of possibilities is short, but the Toronto Raptors found a way to make one of those ideas a reality by acquiring Kawhi Leonard. If healthy, and that is a huge “if,” Kawhi could legitimately claim the crown of the world’s best basketball player. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year can shut down any offensive player, which will result in the Raptors team defense improving as well. This is extremely significant, as the Raptors defensive rating of 103.4 in 2017-18 was fifth best in the Association. Healthy Leonard, if he looks anything like the imposing force we saw ever so briefly in 2016-17, changes the equation. From the annual postseason joke, the Raptors can evolve into a hulking predator, descending upon the weaker links of the East with no mercy. Uncertainty as to Leonard’s health drops the Raptors a touch, but NBA basketball in June in Canada is well within the realm of possibility.
Tier 2: Greatness is Conceivable
5. Philadelphia 76ers
By Lucas Simpson
Key Stat: Markelle Fultz’s 0 games started in 2017-18
While the Philadelphia 76ers didn’t make any large free agency acquisitions to change their roster from last year, Markelle Fultz reaching his potential can be major factor in pushing them to the next level. The fact that the first overall pick was unable to start a single game his rookie year is a major worry. Fultz faced shoulder injuries early in the season as well as shooting problems. But he’s spent the summer working on his jump shot and Sixers fans will be hoping he can reach some of the potential seen by the front office last June when they traded up to get the University of Washington guard. If Fultz is healthy, he will join up with one of the most impressive young partnerships in basketball. Recent surveys show that 47% of GMs feel that Philly has the most promising young core in the NBA. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons have emerged to be a great foundation for the Sixers to build on this season. Each had breakout years, with Embiid making the All-NBA Second Team and Simmons winning the Rookie of The Year award. Adding Fultz, mixed with consistent veterans like Robert Covington and JJ Reddick is a recipe for success for Brett Brown’s men. While LeBron James did leave the East, both Boston and Toronto will have significant roster changes this season. Nonetheless, the Sixers should be contending to finish top of their conference and make a statement in the playoffs to show the results of the Process.
Stats courtesy of ESPN and NBA.com
6. Utah Jazz
By Trey Checkett
Key Stat: 102.9 defensive rating
The Utah Jazz finished last season as the 5th seed in the Western Conference. In a loaded West, the Jazz started Ricky Rubio, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert and had great success. They recovered seemingly well from the loss of Gordon Hayward. Their success was based off their dominance on the defensive side of the ball. The Jazz’s defensive rating was 102.9. They led the entire NBA. While they performed well in the West last year, the West has gotten significantly better and more explosive yet again. Elite defense will certainly elevate the Jazz into the playoffs. It will allow them to replicate much of the remarkable success they appreciated last year. But with a general lack of offensive talent throughout the roster, will Quin Snyder’s wizardry and Mitchell’s brilliance be enough to propel the Jazz to even higher heights in 2018-19?
Stats courtesy of NBA.com
7. Indiana Pacers
By Max Carlin
Key Stat: Tyreke Evans’ 30.4 percent assist percentage
The defining vignette of the 2017-18 Indiana Pacers is Victor Oladipo trapped, helpless on pick-and-roll after pick-and-roll in the Pacers’ first round loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. The trapping got so bad the Pacers stopped using ball screens all together, instead relying on Oladipo’s individual brilliance for creation--it almost worked. The Pacers desperately needed another ball-handler this offseason. They added one of the best available. In 2017-18, Tyreke Evans’ 30.4 percent assist percentage placed in the 100th percentile among wings. Evans is one of the league’s truly elite wing playmakers. In crunch time, Oladipo will be trapped no longer. This year, the Pacers have that second ball-handler, that second force to pressure the defense. With Evans in the fold, the Pacers’ offense adds dimensions, growing from easily containable to impossibly explosive. That offensive improvement should yield another leap in the standings for one of the East’s most quietly threatening young teams.
Stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass
Tier 3: Clearly Good, Clearly Flawed
8. Denver Nuggets
By Zach Bell
Key Stat: 52% of minutes logged by players under 23 last year
The Nuggets’ undeniable talent paired with their extreme youth will make them a team to be afraid of for years to come. Led by Nikola Jokic (23 years old), Jamal Murray (21 years old), and Gary Harris (24 years old), players under 23 last year logged 52% of the team’s minutes. Often, a number this high is indicative of a team tanking for the year and finding a way to get their younger players some minutes in real NBA situations. The Nuggets, on the other hand, were most definitely a playoff-caliber team. Although they missed out on the postseason, they won 46 games, most of them coming without injured former All-Star Paul Millsap. If their main additions of Michael Porter Jr. and Isaiah Thomas can unlock their upside and stay on the court, this team will be dangerous. The projected starting lineup of Murray, Harris, Will Barton, Millsap, and Jokic produced the highest net rating of any lineup in the NBA with a +33.7 pts per 100 possessions. Now that Millsap is healthy, this lineup will get a lot more minutes together. However, the Nuggets’ defense stinks, sitting at 23rd in the league last year, giving up 109.9 points per 100 possessions. Bringing in Isaiah Thomas will not lower that number in any way. This Nuggets team is a contender for a top 4 playoff spot in the Western Conference, but their defense will have to improve before this team can be anything special.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com
9. New Orleans Pelicans
By Zach Bell
Key Stat: 10th in Net Rating after Cousins injury (+2.3)
Losing DeMarcus Cousins could potentially be a big blow for the New Orleans Pelicans heading into the 2018-19 season. However, the Pelicans somehow improved after losing one of the NBA’s biggest presences to an achilles tear in late January. With a 21-13 record and +2.3 net rating good for 10th in the league (compared to a +0.3 net rating before the injury), the Pelicans survived an extremely competitive Western Conference playoff race and swept the 3-seeded Trailblazers before falling to GSW in the second round. This was no fluke either. Their offensive identity evolved, as seen by their change in pace post-Cousins (100.69 to 102.96 possessions per 48 minutes). The Pelicans became the fastest team in the league by more than a possession per game, which opened the floor for Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis to truly excel. Over the offseason, the Pelicans added Elfrid Payton and Julius Randle while losing Cousins and Rajon Rondo. Although the losses definitely seem to outweigh the additions, the trio of Davis, Holiday, and Nikola Mirotic is still intact. Payton and Randle come from the second and third highest-paced teams last year (behind only the Pelicans), so look for them to adapt quickly to the New Orleans system and look for the Pelicans to improve on their great finish to last season.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com
10. Milwaukee Bucks
By Brady Sheaffer
Key Stat: True Shooting Percentage 57.1 percent (6th in NBA)
The Milwaukee Bucks’ offense last season was very effective, boasting the league’s sixth-highest true shooting percentage at 57.1 percent. And that was despite the “coaching” of Jason Kidd and Joe Prunty. The steal of the offseason, therefore, was not a player, but head coach Mike Budenholzer. Budenholzer, renowned for maximizing player talent, will look to establish real, motion-heavy offense and a modern defensive scheme, accounting for the increased shooting and playmaking up and down NBA rosters. The Bucks have great length across the board and the ability to exploit mismatches, the epitome of this takes the form Giannis Antetokounmpo, an unstoppable force and MVP favorite. Often overlooked is the Bucks’ second option, Khris Middleton, who has quietly established himself as a fringe All-Star. It remains to be seen if the Bucks’ big in-season acquisition from last year, Eric Bledsoe, can function alongside Antetokounmpo. An absolute bargain signing in Brook Lopez plus the addition of Ersan Ilyasova cements a solid, veteran front court. Former rookie of the year Malcolm Brogdon highlights the deep bench, as well. With high-end talent and depth, Budenholzer could have the Bucks vying for homecourt in the first round of the playoffs.
11. Oklahoma City Thunder
By Brady Sheaffer
Key Stat: Russell Westbrook’s 95.7 touches per game (league high) and Dennis Schroder’s 87.4 touches per game (fourth-highest)
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s high aspirations last season were met with disappointment after a first round exit at the hands of the Utah Jazz. With the failed experiment of a “Big 3” comprised of Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony; the Thunder needed to make big steps in the offseason and did just that, notably retaining George. Once again, his versatility will shine, and his great partnership with Westbrook will continue to reap rewards. Anthony, on the other hand, never gelled with the team and was dealt to the Atlanta Hawks for Dennis Schroder. Schroder is a talented player, yet he’s always been highly ball-dominant, a style which has never meshed well with Westbrook (even George is more of an off-ball star). Whether the two can coexist remains to be seen. Oklahoma City’s best defender, Andre Roberson, suffered a setback in his rehabilitation from a ruptured patellar tendon and will miss the beginning of a season. This is a huge loss, as the team was a different animal on defense with Roberson on the floor: 5th in defensive efficiency with Roberson on the floor, 23rd with him off. Lastly, the Thunder have a solid, no-nonsense center in Steven Adams who adds another dimension to their game and found a good depth signing in Nerlens Noel. With the defensive presence coming back in Roberson and more defined roles on offense, the Thunder have a good chance to make waves in the West as they fight against similar tier teams stuck in the shadow of the Warriors and Rockets.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com
12. Los Angeles Lakers
By Zach Shube
Key Stat: LeBron’s 87.1 touches per game
The Los Angeles Lakers are back with the signing of LeBron James. Magic Johnson’s $154 million investment in the megastar is one that should pay huge dividends, as the Lakers are looking to return to the postseason for the first time since the 2012-13 season. As the season progresses, it will be interesting to track how LeBron’s ball-dominant tendencies affect the development of the young core of Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, and Josh Hart. A lingering question for the upcoming season revolves around LeBron’s ability to play off the ball on a more regular basis, which could have drastic implications on the offense of the entire team. LeBron will play with two ball-dominant guards in Lonzo Ball and Rajon Rondo, allowing him to work off the ball more so than he has in previous seasons. Coach Luke Walton will implement more elaborate off-ball schemes with Lonzo and Rondo handling the majority of ball-handling duties. As evidenced by LeBron’s involvement in the Cleveland Cavaliers’ offense in the 2017-18 season, LeBron ranked fifth in the NBA with 87.1 touches per game, a number that should dwindle significantly as Ball’s 80.8 touches per game cut into his share of touches and reduce his ability to dominate the ball, marking a transitional season for the King as he adjusts to not being the primary ball-handler. However, the Lakers will make it a point of emphasis to get the ball out of LeBron’s hands, allowing him to operate out of the pick-and-roll as a roll man and play out of the post. With so many creators on the roster, the Lakers’ playoff hopes may not hinge on LeBron’s ability to create for others, which is something previous LeBron squads have relied on.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com
Tier 4: Profoundly Mediocre
13. Portland Trail Blazers
By Lucas Simpson
Key Stat: 13 games missed by Nurkic, Lillard and McCollum
The Portland Trail Blazers were very fortunate in a year that saw stars such as Kristaps Porzingis, Gordon Hayward, DeMarcus Cousins and more see season ending injuries. Their top three scorers, Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, and Jusuf Nurkic missed just 13 games between them. This stability of their core was vital to achieving the 3rd seed in the tough Western Conference last season. After a disappointing 1st round exit at the hands of Anthony Davis and the Pelicans, the Trail Blazers have now been swept in back to back playoff campaigns, exposing the team’s lack of top-end talent. Furthermore, if the Blazers invincibility in the injury department wears off, their status as a playoff team may be jeopardy.
14. Miami Heat
By Alec Gordon
Key Stat: Dwyane Wade’s 22.3 MPG in Miami in 2017-18
The biggest question that will hang over the Miami Heat’s 2018-19 season will be the play of the shooting guard position. Dwyane Wade, the greatest player in franchise history, has announced that this will be his final season, wrapping up a phenomenal 16-year career. For as incredible as Wade has been for his many years in red, black, and white, Wade is not the same player as he used to be, which is reflected in his load of 22.3 minutes per game in the 21 games in which he donned a Heat uniform last year. The Heat’s other primary shooting guard is Dion Waiters, who had a career season two years ago in which he shot 39.5 percent from deep (41.5 percent post all-star break), but has only played a combined 76 games over his two full seasons in South Beach. Waiters’ extensive time on the inactive list plus an sizable dip to 30.6 percent shooting from deep before his ankle surgery last year may see Waiters taking a bit of time before he can find his rhythm. With Waiters coming off another ankle surgery and Wade now accustomed to playing reserve minutes, the shooting guard position will be a topic of discussion until Waiters can get healthy or Wade can fend off Father Time. Miami will have another mediocre season, only making it to the playoffs due to a weak Eastern Conference. This next offseason will be important in seeing where general manager Pat Riley wants to guide his team, whether it be finding a way to part with much-maligned center Hassan Whiteside and his hefty contract, re-committing to aging point guard Goran Dragic, pursuing a big-name free agent (sorry, Jimmy Butler), or discovering a new face of the franchise (hello, Josh Richardson?). For the Heat, 2018-19 will be just another transitional year, as the team awaits its next great iteration.
15. Washington Wizards
By Tory Farmer
Key Stat: John Wall’s 1.17 RPM
It’s unlikely that the Wizards will be able to compete with the East’s elite this year, given Philadelphia’s young core, Boston’s formidable lineup, and Toronto’s acquisition of Kawhi Leonard. However, if the Wizards have any hope of making a playoff run to the second round and potentially beyond, John Wall will need to step up. His real plus-minus was only 1.17 last year, good for 89th in the league. There is a significant bright spot for the Wizards in Otto Porter Jr, who has delivered two quality seasons in a row with over 8.0 win shares. Signing Dwight Howard and Austin Rivers were the biggest moves made in the offseason, but Howard is off a down year (.64 RPM, 116th overall). Rivers posted career high offensive numbers on a career high usage percentage (20.6 percent) with the Clippers, but his will not be enough to propel the Wizards into the East’s elite.
Stats courtesy of ESPN and Basketball Reference
16. Detroit Pistons
By Max Carlin
Key Stat: Reggie Jackson’s 97 combined games played in the last two seasons
When the Detroit Pistons traded for Reggie Jackson at the 2015 trade deadline, he was supposed to be Andre Drummond’s right hand man, the Jameer Nelson to Drummond’s Dwight Howard in the eyes of now-unemployed Stan Van Gundy. In 2015-16, Jackson’s first full year in Motor City, that investment seemed prudent. Jackson played 79 games. He was a borderline All-Star--in the East, granted, but he was legitimately quite good. In the two seasons since, Jackson’s played a combined 97 games. The result is a creation vacuum, as the team cannot count on Jackson, and does not have other traditional ball-handlers from which to derive playmaking. That’s where Drummond and Blake Griffin factor in. Griffin, long known as nothing more than a dunker, has long been more than that. In 2017-18, Griffin placed in the 100th percentile among bigs in assist percentage at 31 percent; he’s never finished below the 95th percentile. Drummond, for his part, took a large step forward in 2017-18, notching a 14 percent assist percentage, placing in the 84th percentile among bigs, by far a career high. Built around elite playmaking bigs, the Pistons can survive on offense better than one would expect without the team’s only capable point guard. Nonetheless, it’ll be yet another painfully mediocre season in Detroit if Jackson cannot stay healthy, join his playmaking bigs, and elevate Detroit’s offense.
17. Memphis Grizzlies
By Brian Li
Key Stats: Kyle Anderson +13 net rating with the Spurs in 2017-18
The two biggest additions made by the Memphis Grizzlies this past offseason were the drafting of Jaren Jackson Jr. and the signing of Kyle Anderson for four years and $37 million. These moves aim to keep Grizzlies competitive as Mike Conley and Marc Gasol enter the twilights of their careers, but at the same time allow for the team to build for the future. The length of Anderson’s deal implies that he will be in Memphis’s plans for the long term, and he showed that he can be a more than capable creator and defender coming off his career year with the San Antonio Spurs. His proficiency can be best highlighted by his +13 net rating, which was tied for best on the team as he filled in the small forward void left by Kawhi Leonard.
Additionally, the Grizzlies will look to develop the uber-talented Jackson. In the present, Jackson will be a solid fit alongside Marc Gasol, as he will have the opportunity to develop his ability to space the floor, building upon his freshman season at Michigan State, where he shot 39.8% from 3. He will also have a chance to work on rim protection, as Gasol has faltered defensively in recent years. In the long run, Memphis hopes Jackson projects as the prototypical modern big, with his ability to drain threes, switch every screen, and protect the rim.
The Grizzlies will look to stay competitive with the last remnants of their Grit and Grind core, but they cannot accomplish that without the help of a supporting cast likely led by Kyle Anderson and Jaren Jackson Jr.
18. San Antonio Spurs
By Trey Checkett
Key Stat: Dejounte Murray’s 48 Games Started in 2017-2018 Season It is a new look Spurs. Manu Ginobili retired, Tony Parker signed with the Hornets, and Kawhi Leonard gave Greg Popovich and RC Buford the silent treatment until he was traded. While DeMar DeRozan and Lamarcus Aldridge are the team’s big guns, this was supposed to be the breakout year of Dejounte Murray. Halfway through last season, Murray took Tony Parker’s starting job and helped the Spurs into the Western Conference Playoffs. He ended the year with 48 starts under his belt and showed he has the potential to be a starting-caliber guard in this league. Unfortunately, Murray tore his ACL in the preseason and will miss the full 2018-2019 season. Patty Mills, Bryn Forbes, and Derrick White (now out 6-8 weeks himself). These three are the remaining point guards on the Spurs roster. They have 66 regular season games started combined in their careers. At a position that’s been steady for San Antonio for over a decade, there is now a vacuum, and it seems to be collapsing in on itself. It could suck the whole team and all its aspirations in this year.
Tier 5: Bad but Respectable
19. Minnesota Timberwolves
By Max Carlin
Key Stat: -4.8 net rating with Jimmy Butler off-court
At some point during the 2018-19 NBA season, the Minnesota Timberwolves will trade Jimmy Butler. They’ll get something back, of course, but it won’t be Jimmy Butler, and when the 2017-18 Wolves were without Butler, they were bad. With Butler off the court last year, the Wolves sported a -4.8 net rating, which would have placed 25th in the league last year. Even in the minutes with Butler off and Minnesota’s other star, Karl-Anthony Towns, on, the Wolves were outscored by 1.1 points per 100 possessions. As Butler allegedly yelled during his fabled return to Wolves practice this week, the team “(bleeping) needs [him].” At the height of his powers, Butler is undoubtedly one of the ten best basketball players in the world. He’s a high-level creator for himself and others. He’s a wrecking ball on defense. The Wolves won’t get that player this year. He’ll be preoccupied and disgruntled, then he’ll be in another team’s uniform. For that, the Wolves will suffer immensely.
Stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass
20. Dallas Mavericks
By Jake Hoffman
Key Stat: Clippers rebounding improved 3.9% with DeAndre Jordan on the floor vs. off
While it is no secret that the Mavericks had many struggles on both ends of the floor during the 2017-2018 season in the loaded Western Conference, several offseason moves should set up the Mavs for more success during the upcoming season. The Mavericks showed a desire to improve in the rebounding aspect of the game signing DeAndre Jordan to a one-year deal. For years Jordan has been one of the league’s premier rebounders, improving the Clippers’ defensive rebounding by 3.9% and 3.5% offensively, which are in the 93rd and 87th percentiles respectively. After being in the bottom four in the league a season ago, the Mavericks should greatly benefit from this addition of a strong big man by extending their own teams possessions while also ending those of opposing teams.
Jordan should also be a great complement to the young and exciting backcourt of the Mavs. With his near supernatural play-making abilities, Luka Doncic should get many open looks inside for Jordan and on the perimeter for Dennis Smith Jr. who struggled shooting the ball at times last year. In his rookie season, Smith had an eFG of 44.6%, well below the league average of 52.1%. Dennis Smith Jr.’s shooting troubles early in his career were no anomaly, in fact many prominent shooting point guards in the league, including Mike Conley and Chris Paul, started off their careers shooting in a similar range. Despite playing in a conference loaded with superstar players and teams, the Mavericks will be a fun and exciting team to watch as they head into Dirk Nowitzki’s historic 21st season.
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass
21. LA Clippers
By Brian Li
Key Stat: Lou Williams 3.8 offensive box plus minus
While the LA Clippers have seemed to take a mighty tumble with the departures of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan over the past year and a half, they are quietly fielding one of the deeper rosters in the NBA this season. The starters are led by the key piece from the Blake Griffin trade, Tobias Harris. However, the second unit, led by reigning sixth man of the year Lou Williams, should be especially potent. Williams put up a 3.8 offensive box plus minus last season, which was comparable to the likes of superstars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Oladipo, and was the second best of his career. He still struggled mightily on the defensive end, putting up a defensive box plus minus of -2.9. With Williams flanked by defensively-minded bench pieces, like new addition Luc Mbah a Moute and Sindarius Thornwell, the bench mob has the potential to be a solid defensive unit, and would allow Williams to build off his borderline All-Star season on the offensive end.
However, the strength of the Clippers’ bench is also dependent on the health of the starting lineup, which was injury-ravaged last season. Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari, two of the Clippers’ most important pieces acquired the previous offseason, only managed to play 32 games combined. Avery Bradley was also limited to just 6 games with LA after he was traded from Detroit. Their reserves may once again be depleted if their biggest contributors miss time due to injury. Regardless, the Clippers are in good position to contend for a playoff spot solely based on their vast pool of talent. But more importantly, they have the pieces and cap space to be an enticing free-agent destination in the coming offseasons, and also offer the prospect of playing on a Los Angeles team without being the second fiddle to LeBron James.
22. Charlotte Hornets
By Max Carlin
Key Stat: Kemba Walker’s +10.5 On/Off Net Rating Differential
Kemba Walker is perennially underappreciated. That the Hornets were 10.5 points per 100 possessions better with Walker on the floor than off in 2017-18 certainly speaks to that. Break that on/off differential into on and off, though, and you get a clearer picture of the failings of Charlotte. With Walker on-court, the Hornets boasted a plus-3.1 net rating--really solid. With Walker off, the Hornets were outscored by 7.4 points per 100--truly abysmal. And 2017-18 was more of the same for Charlotte. In 2016-17, Walker’s on/off differential was a gargantuan plus-12.4 (95th percentile among all players). Break that down, and the Hornets only outscored opponents by 3.4 points per 100 with Walker on. Meanwhile, Charlotte was outscored by 9 points per 100 with Walker off. Charlotte’s immense and consistent struggles with Walker on the bench can be traced to the team’s backup point guard situation. For years, it’s been a graveyard of has-beens and never-weres. In 2018-19, that won’t change, despite considerable financial efforts to the contrary. Michael Jordan’s squad coughed up $10 million over the next two years to seduce a hall-of-fame point guard away from the only franchise he’s ever known. Tony Parker in a Hornets jersey will never stop feeling new and weird, but his play will remain regrettably consistent. Parker is no longer the player he once was; frankly, he’s no longer a positive. It’s unlikely the 36-year-old stabilizes Charlotte’s point guard depth. It’s unlikely Charlotte survives its Walker-less minutes. This year, the Hornets will remain regrettably consistent.
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass
23. Cleveland Cavaliers
By Tory Farmer
Key Stat: JR Smith’s 28.1 Minutes / Game.
The Cavs have a LeBron-shaped hole in their lineup right now, so who is going to step up? While Kevin Love seems to be LeBron’s well-deserved heir (putting up 17.6 PTS / 9.3 AST / 1.7 REB over 59 games), a significant dependence on JR Smith may hold the team back. His 28.1 minutes per game last year were second on the team only to LeBron, but his Player Efficiency Rating of 8.5 was dead last among the 13 Cavs players logging over 20 minutes per game. His overall value on the court has reached a new low, as his win shares per 48 minutes was .031 last season, his worst mark since his rookie season back in ‘04-’05. There are brights spots on this roster; Kyle Korver shot .436 from outside the arc, Kevin Love has experience carrying a team, and Collin Sexton has shown promise after averaging nearly 20 points per game at Alabama. Regardless, when somebody who averaged 27.5 points, 9.1 assists, and 8.6 rebounds per game packs his bags for Hollywood, regression is expected.
All stats courtesy of ESPN and Basketball Reference
24. Brooklyn Nets
By Jacob Linker
Key Stat: 35.7 3PA per game last year (2nd in NBA)
The Brooklyn Nets definitely took a step forward last year. Growth from young players such as Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson combined with the contributions of rookie Jared Allen and (albeit limited) D’Angelo Russell, the Nets stock is on the rise. Last year, the Nets were second in the league in 3-point attempts to the Houston Rockets. However, they were only twenty-first in 3-point field goal percentage at 35.6%. The NBA has been trending towards the 3-point shot, as evidenced by the Rockets and Warriors reigning over basketball, so it is encouraging to see the Nets getting up these shots (even though some are probably bad shots). Math alone will allow the Nets to score at a passable rate. They may not be ready to make the postseason leap, but the rebuild should soon show some results.
Tier 6: Not Great, Bob
25. Orlando Magic
By Max Carlin
Key Stat: Aaron Gordon’s 23.1 percent usage rate
Aaron Gordon is a good NBA player. Good enough that the Orlando Magic doled out $80 million over the next four years to retain his services this summer. Independent of context, that move was fine. Gordon’s good; good players get paid. Yet, the Gordon contract reeks of institutional misguidance. In 2017-18, Gordon sported a 23.1 percent usage rate. Gordon is theoretically useful because he’s complementary. He’ll hit spot-up threes, protect the paint, get out in transition, roll hard to the rim, and clean the glass. He’s not a focal point, but a support piece, amorphously fitting in wherever he’s needed. In Orlando, Gordon’s freedom is his prison. The offense doesn’t revolve around the fifth-year forward, but it certainly hinges on him. Gordon’s expected to create for himself (just 60 percent of his field goals were assisted last year), to be anything but complementary. The returns for an offense so reliant on a player with such limited creation equity were predictably poor: the Magic placed 27th in offensive rating last year. Although, Gordon’s outsized role was perhaps more so a symptom of deeper organizational issues in Orlando. The Magic had no offensive talent, they didn’t add any this summer, and they’ve committed financially to a player who’s horribly miscast as a top option. Necessity ensures the Magic will continue funneling possessions to Gordon in 2018-19. The team’s offense will flounder, its hopes of anything other than basement-dweller status with it.
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass
26. Chicago Bulls
By Humza Siddiqui
Key Stat: Jabari Parker’s +1.2 offensive rating on/off differential in 2015-16
Jabari Parker has been a notoriously weak defensive player in the NBA, but his offensive contributions have actually been statistically poor as well. In three of his four seasons with the Bucks, only one (2015-16) has yielded a net positive differential in terms of team points scored per 100 possessions played at +1.2, ranking in the 65th percentile for all players. Otherwise, the differential has been negative every year at -2.2, -0.1, and -0.8. The Bulls ranked 28th last season in points per 100 possessions at 103.8 points, so the addition of Jabari Parker may not be the positive spark the organization is needing from their new hometown forward. Parker’s teams’ net rating differentials with him on vs. off, which account for his defensive contributions as well, have been even worse at -5.0, -4.8. -0.8. and -8.3 in each of the past four seasons. An expanded role and high usage rate may not be the necessary solution since his usage rate was at its career low when he had the most positive points and efficiency differentials (in his second season). Instead of starting Parker and playing him in a big role at small forward, the Bulls should instead focus on giving more minutes to recently drafted Wendell Carter Jr., Lauri Markkanen, and Bobby Portis. Parker’s negative contributions on both ends of the floor can actually hurt the Bulls more than help them this year.
Stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass
27. Phoenix Suns
By Trey Checkett
Key Stat: Devin Booker’s 31.3% Usage
Since Devin Booker joined the Suns, the Suns have been a young team, attempting to rebuild. They have been consistently at the bottom of the Western Conference standings and their roster depleted of talent. Devin Booker has been the sole, consistent bright spot for the Suns. In the 2017-2018 season, his usage was 31.3%. A player’s usage measures the percentage of team’s possessions used by a player while he was on the floor. His usage rate ranks in the 99th percentile for his position and he will continue to dominate the ball. The Suns go as Devin Booker goes. During the offseason, the Suns signed Trevor Ariza, traded for Ryan Anderson, and landed Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges in the draft. While the Suns made strides to improve their team, it is still not enough. Ariza and Anderson will improve the team’s 3-point shooting, but the team has no point guard depth. The Suns ranked 26th in made field goals assisted on last season, and that lack of creation should continue to hinder the Suns’ offense, despite the presence of an perceived offensive star in Booker. Meanwhile, a defense that was the league’s worst and has added Anderson, Ayton, and Jamal Crawford should help to keep Phoenix mired in the league’s basement.
28. Atlanta Hawks
By Jacob Linker
Key Stat: Team assist per FGM rate of 0.622 in 17-18 No one is looking for the Atlanta Hawks to make noise in a very weak Eastern Conference. However, Atlanta does have some nice building blocks in John Collins, Taurean Prince, and the recently drafted Kevin Huerter and Trae Young. Given they traded the rights to Luka Doncic to acquire Young, he better turn into something special. Young should definitely elevate his new team in the assists department, as he paced all of Division I college basketball in assists per game with 8.7. Even though they were rebuilding last year, the Hawks distributed the ball at a top-5 clip. Their entire team had an assist per field goal made rate of 0.622 last year. With the added distributing and shooting of Young, and the shooting that Huerter will bring to the team, the Hawks should keep this number relatively stable or even increase it. They most likely will not make the playoffs, but the Hawks should maintain their ability to find the open shot and score, elevating them above the very worst of the worst.
29. New York Knicks
By Brian Li
Key Stat: 28% pythagorean win percentage after Kristaps Porzingis’ injury=
The New York Knicks have a long season ahead of them with unicorn Kristaps Porzingis sidelined with an ACL tear. There is no clear timetable for his return, and as the Knicks showed last year, they are dreadful without Porzingis on the floor. If he were to miss the entire season, the Knicks may be looking at a performance similar to that of last season following Porzingis’ injury, where they put up a 28% Pythagorean Win Percentage (a stat that exclusively looks at points for and against), which translates roughly to a 23-win team over a full season.
On the bright side, the team seems to finally have a clear direction, and will be able to continue the rebuild that started last year. Kevin Knox so far seems to be a steal from this past year’s draft. He proved he was on another level compared to the competition in summer league, as his 21.3 ppg was tops among rookies. While an inefficient preseason has quelled some of the hype for Knox, he still is one of the top candidates of this year’s draft to make an immediate impact.
Frank Ntilikina will have to prove that the Knicks didn’t completely whiff by selecting him over Dennis Smith Jr. in the 2017 draft. He showed promise on the defensive end, but he still has a long way to go on offense, as exhibited by his atrocious -2.0 offensive win shares, which was far and away the worst on the team.
The Knicks also decided to take fliers on a number of former lottery picks of recent years, hoping the likes of Emmanuel Mudiay, Mario Hezonja, and Noah Vonleh will be able to flourish in the right situation.
This team was on the very fringe of the playoff picture last year even before the Kristaps Porzingis injury, and with the unicorn out, the Knicks will be one of the teams toiling at the bottom of the Eastern Conference.
30. Sacramento Kings
By Trey Checkett
Key Stat: 25.4 Projected Wins (per ESPN)
The Kings are not good. They have not had a winning season since 2006-2007 and have not made it past the first round of the playoffs since 2003-2004. They have spent almost a decade using lottery pick after lottery pick after lottery pick on players who seemingly disappear, highlighted by studs Spencer Hawes, Thomas Robinson, Ben McLemore, and Nik Stauskas. As dismal as the Kings’ past decade of basketball has been, there is some hope. The Kings have a talented, young core. Led by De’Aaron Fox and followed by the likes of Marvin Bagley III, Buddy Hield, and Bogdan Bogdanovic, the Kings might not win many games this year, but the future might finally be trending up.
Stats throughout provided by Basketball-Reference unless otherwise specified
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